Analysis of JULES1p0 ensemble SSP585

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[1] “baresoilFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “c3PftFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “c4PftFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”
[4] “cSoil_ens_ssp585_S3” “cVeg_ens_ssp585_S3” “fHarvest_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3”
[7] “fLuc_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3” “lai_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3” “nbp_ens_ssp585_S3”
[10] “npp_ens_ssp585_S3” “rh_lnd_sum_ens_ssp585_S3” “shrubFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”
[13] “treeFrac_lnd_mean_ens_ssp585_S3”

0.1 Which ensemble members match constraints?

Start with Level 2 (Andy’s constraints in NPP, NBP, cSoil and cVeg)

0.1.1 Timeseries of absolute vales

0.1.2 Anomaly timeseries

0.2 Include baresoil fraction data

0.2.1 Anomaly timeseries AW + baresoil

0.3 End-Of-Century values under various constraints

Starting with AW constraints (level 2) and then bare soil (level3)

0.3.1 Histograms of end-of-century absolute values

0.3.2 Histograms of end-of-century changes (anomaly from preindustrial)

0.4 Adding cumulative NBP as a constraint

     [,1] [,2] [,3]
[1,]    1    2    3
[2,]    4    5    6
[3,]    7    8    9
     [,1] [,2] [,3]
[1,]    1    3    6
[2,]    4    9   15
[3,]    7   15   24

0.4.1 Cumulative NBP in the level 4 constrained ensemble

[1] 37
[1] 12.8
[1] 6

0.4.2 The carbon cycle in level 4 constrained ensemble

0.5 the impact of constraints on input space

First, the entire wave01 ensemble. Hard boundaries taken out early are visible here

0.5.1 Level 4 constrained input space

JULES standard member in red.

0.6 rank the level5 members by their 2100 values

    2100 
139.5931 
[1] -175.275401   -6.008088  139.593092  249.892286

0.7 Level 5 input space, with selected members

1 Indices in the design of the test set

[1] "param-perturb-P0918.conf" "param-perturb-P0812.conf" "param-perturb-P0999.conf" "param-perturb-P0811.conf"
[1] 918 812 999 811